En general, el cambio de tono en las minutas de la FED hacia uno más optimista es evidente (similar que el del Banco Central de Chile), desde Abril destacando lo bueno y refiriéndose a los riesgos en "letra chica". Lo anterior se puede entender debido al año electoral en el que estamos (con la no menor presión que el Gobierno de US actual ha puesto públicamente en la FED), y a lo grave de la situación económica global que he comentado en los posts, donde lo más preocupante es el aumento de la deuda de Gobiernos y empresas sobre niveles de inicios de año que ya eran históricos y preocupantes, el nivel extremo del precio de los activos de renta variable y fija en el mundo, y las casi nulas herramientas de política monetaria que tienen los Bancos Centrales, excepto "imprimir" billetes para financiar los déficit fiscales actuales y futuros para evitar el no pago de la deuda soberana donde, como ha dicho públicamente Powell en casi todos sus últimos statements, el nivel de déficit fiscal y de acumulación de deuda del Gobierno de Estados Unidos es insostenible.
Hay solo 3 caminos actualmente en casi todo el mundo desarrollado que tienen los Gobiernos respecto al nivel insostenible de sus deudas: no pagar, monetizarla con compras infinitas de activos por parte de sus Bancos Centrales que, independiente del discurso oficial, ya NO son independientes y dependen en gran parte de la política fiscal (como en Japón en los últimos 20 años), o crear inflación que es una forma de default encubierto. Esto último, es el camino que públicamente a mi juicio seguirá la FED y Estados Unidos en lo próximo luego del anuncio del cambio del target de la FED sobre la inflación desde el 2% anual a uno de 2% promedio anual en un período de tiempo (aun no definido), lo que está afectando y continuará influenciando las expectativas sobre el nivel de precios.
Abajo algunas notas destacadas de las minutas más enfocadas en la "letra chica" y los riesgos al escenario que a Mr. Market le cuesta ver:
"Fiscal policy measures, along with the support from monetary policy and the Federal Reserve’s liquidity and lending facilities, were expected to continue supporting the second-half recovery, although the recovery was forecast to be far from complete by year-end. The staff’s forecast assumed the enactment of some additional fiscal policy support this year; without that additional policy action, the pace of the economic recovery would likely be slower."
"Given the apparent resilience of the U.S. economy to the acceleration in the spread of the pandemic during the summer, the staff judged that a significantly more pessimistic economic outcome, which the staff had previously viewed as no less plausible than the baseline forecast and had featured a renewed downturn in economic activity, was now less likely than the baseline forecast."
"Prior fiscal policy actions were seen as having supported the ability and willingness of households to spend, although most participants expressed concern about the expiration of the enhanced unemployment insurance benefits from the CARES Act (Coronavirus Aid, Relief, and Economic Security Act) and judged that additional fiscal relief would help sustain the recovery in household spending. Indeed, many participants noted that their economic outlook assumed additional fiscal support and that if future fiscal support was significantly smaller or arrived significantly later than they expected, the pace of the recovery could be slower than anticipated."
"Although business contacts indicated that overall business activity had been stronger than they expected, it remained well below pre-pandemic levels. Business contacts pointed to several factors that could restrain further recovery, including high levels of uncertainty that were reportedly still holding back hiring and capital spending."
"Some participants noted that the majority of gains in employment so far reflected workers on temporary layoffs returning to work. These participants judged it as less likely for future job gains to continue at their recent pace, because a greater share of the remaining layoffs might become permanent. Workers facing permanent layoffs were seen as more likely to need to find new jobs in different industries, and this process could take time, especially to the extent that these workers needed to be retrained."
"... inflation remained subdued, and participants still generally judged that the overall effect of the pandemic on prices was disinflationary. While the outlook for inflation was viewed as highly uncertain, a number of participants projected that inflation would run below the Committee’s 2 percent longer-run objective for a significant period before moving moderately above 2 percent for some time—consistent with the Committee’s revised consensus statement."
"While the pace of corporate downgrades was seen as having decreased significantly in recent months, the delinquency rates on business loans had risen noticeably. Bank contacts reported ample capacity to lend to creditworthy borrowers; however, surveys of credit availability indicated that bank lending was tight. Furthermore, several participants noted the stress that small- and medium-sized banks could face from defaults on loans to small businesses and CRE properties if people continued to withdraw from travel and shopping activities. Additionally, a couple of participants indicated that highly accommodative financial market conditions could lead to excessive risk-taking and to a buildup of financial imbalances."
"Most participants raised the concern that fiscal support so far for households, businesses, and state and local governments might not provide sufficient relief to these sectors. A couple of participants saw an upside risk that further fiscal stimulus could be larger than anticipated, though it might come later than had been expected."
"A substantial majority of participants judged the risks to their projections for real GDP growth as weighted to the downside and the risks to their unemployment rate projections as weighted to the upside. A substantial majority of participants viewed the risks to their inflation projections as weighted to the downside."