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Notas destacadas de las minutas de la reunión de la FED del 29 de Julio

"Total nonfarm payroll employment expanded robustly in June, as it did in May, but the gains in those two months offset only about one-third of the jobs lost in March and April."


"...banks reported a notable tightening of lending standards on commercial and industrial (C&I) loans to firms of all sizes in the second quarter. Standards were reported to be at the tighter end of their range since 2005, a marked change from a year ago. C&I loans on banks’ balance sheets contracted significantly in June, reflecting paydowns of the record draws on credit lines seen in previous months, as well as low originations."


"The credit quality of existing CRE (Commercial Real Estate) loans continued to deteriorate as further signs of repayment difficulties emerged, most notably in the lodging and retail sectors."


"The staff provided an update on its assessment of the stability of the financial system, and, on balance, characterized the financial vulnerabilities of the U.S. financial system as notable, while noting an unusually high level of uncertainty associated with this assessment. The staff judged that asset valuation pressures were notable. In particular, high-yield and investment-grade corporate bond spreads were within historical norms, and commercial real estate prices were continuing to increase despite rising vacancy rates. The staff assessed vulnerabilities due to nonfinancial leverage to have risen from moderate to notable, reflecting declines in household incomes and business profits; such declines implied less resilient borrowers. The expected sharp decline in second-quarter real GDP would likely result in a rise in the ratio of household debt to nominal GDP."


"The projected rate of recovery in real GDP, and the pace of declines in the unemployment rate, over the second half of this year were expected to be somewhat less robust than in the previous forecast. Although the staff assumed that additional fiscal stimulus measures would be enacted beyond those anticipated in the June forecast, the positive effect on the economic outlook was outweighed somewhat by the staff’s assessment of the likely effects of several other factors. Those factors included the increasing spread of the coronavirus in the United States since midJune; the reactions of many states and localities in slowing or scaling back the reopening of their economies, especially for businesses, such as restaurants and bars, providing services that entail personal interactions; and some high-frequency indicators that pointed to a deceleration in economic activity. Substantial fiscal policy measures—both enacted and anticipated—along with appreciable support from monetary policy and the Federal Reserve’s liquidity and lending facilities were expected to continue bolstering the economic recovery, although a complete recovery was not expected by yearend." Ojo con los supuestos...


"In light of the significant uncertainty and downside risks associated with the course of the pandemic and how long it would take the economy to recover, the staff still judged that a more pessimistic projection was no less plausible than the baseline forecast."


"With regard to the behavior of household spending in recent weeks, participants pointed to information from District contacts and high-frequency indicators (such as credit and debit card transactions and mobility indicators based on cellphone location tracking), as suggesting that increases in some consumer expenditures had likely slowed in reaction to the further spread of the virus"


"In contrast to the sizable rebound in consumer spending, participants saw less improvement in the business sector in recent months, and they noted that their District business contacts continued to report extraordinarily high levels of uncertainty and risks. Several participants relayed examples of some operational difficulties their business contacts were reportedly facing in the current environment. These difficulties included managing disruptions in supply chains, challenges associated with closure and reopening, and elevated employee absenteeism in some cases. Furthermore, some participants noted that small businesses were under significant strain."


"Participants noted that the fiscal support initiated in the spring through the CARES Act had been very important in granting some financial relief to millions of families. A number of participants observed that, with some provisions of the CARES Act set to expire shortly against the backdrop of a still-weak labor market, additional fiscal aid would likely be important for supporting vulnerable families, and thus the economy more broadly, in the period ahead."


"Banks and other financial institutions could come under significant stress, particularly if one of the more adverse scenarios regarding the spread of the virus and its effects on economic activity was realized. Nonfinancial corporations had carried high levels of indebtedness into the pandemic, increasing their risk of insolvency. There were also concerns that the anticipated increase in Treasury debt over the next few years could have implications for market functioning."


"... the path of the economy would depend significantly on the course of the virus and that the ongoing public health crisis would weigh heavily on economic activity, employment, and inflation in the near term and posed considerable risks to the economic outlook over the medium term."

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